Rallis India (RALI IN)


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Rallis India (RALI IN)

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs155 | TP: Rs180

July 19, 2019

Q1FY20 Result Update

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco

Change in Estimates

Current FY20E FY21E

Rating Target Price Sales (Rs. m)
% Chng. EBITDA (Rs. m)
% Chng. EPS (Rs.)
% Chng.

ACCUMULATE

180

21,686 24,535

0.4

1.1

2,674

3,277

1.6

2.6

8.5

10.6

1.9

4.1

Previous FY20E FY21E ACCUMULATE
173 21,609 24,259
2,633 3,193
8.3 10.2

Key Financials - Standalone

Y/e Mar Sales (Rs. m) EBITDA (Rs. m)
Margin (%) PAT (Rs. m) EPS (Rs.)
Gr. (%) DPS (Rs.)
Yield (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PE (x) P/BV (x)

FY18 17,909
2,645 14.8
1,676 8.6
(10.2) 3.7 2.4
14.6 18.5
1.6 11.0 18.0
2.5

FY19 19,840
2,409 12.1
1,554 8.0
(7.3) 2.5 1.6
12.5 15.2
1.5 12.1 19.4
2.3

FY20E 21,686
2,674 12.3
1,653 8.5 6.4 3.5 2.3
12.5 14.8
1.3 10.8 18.2
2.2

FY21E 24,535
3,277 13.4
2,059 10.6 24.5 3.5 2.3 14.4 17.6 1.2 8.6 14.6 2.0

Key Data
52-W High / Low Sensex / Nifty Market Cap Shares Outstanding 3M Avg. Daily Value

RALL.BO | RALI IN
Rs.215 / Rs.139 38,337 / 11,419
Rs.30bn/ $ 437m 194m
Rs.53.66m

Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoter’s Foreign Domestic Institution Public & Others Promoter Pledge (Rs bn)

50.09 4.49
18.03 27.39
-

Stock Performance (%)

1M

Absolute

7.0

Relative

9.1

6M (5.9) (10.7)

12M (17.3) (21.6)

Prashant Biyani [email protected] | 91-22-66322260

July 19, 2019

Turnaround plan getting executed
Rallis results were inline with estimates (topline up 9%, PAT up 24%) driven by International business (12% g, Sales mix- 23%) and 18% optical growth in Metahelix (Actual growth is only 2.6%, Sales Mix- 42%). Pressure on gross margin continued (down 147 bps YoY @ 61.9%), driven by higher DMPAT prices (key raw material for Acephate which is one of their major products) and lower price of Pendimethalin in the international markets due to short term oversupply. Higher other income (up 63%) and lower tax rate (@22% v/s 28% YoY) partly pumped up profits. The company is on track with its capex plans (in Metribuzin, backward integration, formulation capacity) and new capacities are expected to drive growth along with planned product launches, new channel policy and expansion of channel network. While various steps are being implemented to turn around the business, investors will diligently observe the execution timeline for the same. Significant increase in disclosures is also a welcome move. We upgrade our revenue/EBITDA and PAT estimates by 0.4%/1.6%/1.9% for FY20 and 1.1%/2.6%/4.0% for FY21. We maintain our Accumulate rating with revise target price of Rs180 (Previous – Rs173) based on 17x FY21E earnings.
Metahelix grew by 18% YoY but overall seeds business growth is mere 2.6%: Till last year Rallis used to partly account for seed business revenue in standalone entity (remaining in Metahelix). Now the company is following a policy of booking entire seed business revenue in Metahelix which led to sharp revenue growth of 18% even as the overall seed business growth on the cons. level is only 2.6%. Growth was led by Cotton, Maize and Bajra. Its recently launched hybrid millet seeds (MP 7171 & MP 7878) gained traction with ~4x increase in sales YoY. Cotton and Maize seeds contribute 40-45% of revenue.
Turnaround plan is under execution: Turnaround plan initiated by the new management is under execution. The immediate priority is to strengthen the distribution network and improve product portfolio. Rallis is targeting to appoint additional 600 dealers in FY20, taking the total dealer count to 4100 (retailer connect – 41000). Most of the addition is expected to happen in North and Eastern markets where Rallis is relatively weak. The company is making channel policies more friendly by relaxing the credit terms and offering good discounts on prompt payments.
Metribuzin capacity to double by Dec’19- Rallis has completed 1st phase of 500 MTPA Metribuzin expansion and 2nd phase (500 MTPA) is expected to be completed by Dec’19 which will double the capacity to 2000 MTPA. The management expects revenue of Rs2bn from the new capacities in FY21. The company further plans to invest Rs1.4bn for backward integration of few technical products and a new formulation capacity is also expected to commence operations soon.
2 new launches planned in July’19: Rallis has received registration for Flubendiamide 0.7% GR (Brand Name- Zygant; Insecticide for rice stem borer; Competition- Fluton from PI, Fame from Bayer, etc) and Kresoxim-methyl 40% + Hexaconazole 8% WG (Brand – Ayaan; Fungicide against Blast disease). 3 more products are expected to be launched in FY20. The company is targeting to launch 11-12 new products in the next few years. To reduce the cyclicality in Metahelix, the management is working on new products in horticulture segment and Hybrid maize.
1

Rallis India

Cons Results (Rs mn): 9% Revenue growth driven by international business and Metahelix

Y/e March (Rs mn)

Q1FY20

Q1FY19

YoY gr. (%)

Q4FY19

Standalone Revenue Domestic International
Subsidiary Revenue Cons Net Sales Expenditure Raw Materials
% of Net Sales Employee Cost
% of Net Sales Other Expenses
% of Net Sales Total Expenditure EBITDA
Margin (%) Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax
Tax Rate (%) RPAT APAT

3,631 2,215 1,416 2,601 6,232
3,856 61.9 489 7.8 940 15.1
5,285 947 15.2 143 805 16 80 869 194 22.3 675 677

3,524 2,259 1,264 2,207 5,731
3,462 60.4 446 7.8 992 17.3
4,899 832 14.5 115 716 9 49 757 210 27.8 546 548

3.0 (2.0) 12.0 17.8
8.7
11.4
9.6
(5.2)
7.9 13.9
23.5 12.4 74.4 62.5 14.9 (7.9)
23.6 23.6

3,177 1,447 1,730
220 3,396
1,930 56.8 481 14.2 918 27.0
3,329 67 2.0
105 (38)
17 110
55 42 76.5 13 15

Source: Company, PL

Crop Protection constitutes 75% of revenue (FY19)

Polymer 2%

Seeds 16%

Others 3%

Crop Nutrition 4%

YoY gr. (%) 14.3 53.1
(18.1) NA
83.5
99.8
1.6
2.4
58.8 NA
35.6 NA
(4.8) (27.1)
NA NA
NA NA

Source: Company, PL

Crop Protection 75%

July 19, 2019

2

July 19, 2019

Rallis India

23% 19% 19% 2% 3% 6% 2% 2% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%

Geographical break up of total revenue

FY17 FY18 FY19

70% 73%
67%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

India Asia (Other North

South

Africa

than India) America America

Source: Company, PL

Europe Australia

19% 19% 1% 5% 3% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1%

Geographical break up of Agri-Inputs revenue

FY18 FY19

75% 68%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

India Asia (Other North

South

than India) America America

Source: Company, PL

Africa

Europe

Australia

ITI is largely flat over the last 4 years @ 10-11% 12%

10%

11%

11%

8%

6%

7%

4%

2%

0% FY16
Source: Company, PL

FY17

FY18

10% FY19

3

CRAMS contribute ~12% to revenue (FY19)

Misc

CRAMS

2%

12%

Rallis India

Source: Company, PL

Agri-Inputs 86%

Revenue from manufacturing largely remains unchanged at ~90%

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

90%

91%

Manufacuring

Source: Company, PL

FY18 FY19

10%

9%

Trading

Key Products

Domestic Herbicides Fungicides Insecticides PGRs
International B2B CRAMS

Tata Metri, Taarak, Tata Panida, Panida- Grande, Sartaj, Fateh Contaf, Contaf Plus, Taqat, Ergon, Tata Master, Sultaf Asataf, Applaud, Takumi, Hunk, Nagata, Origin, Reeva 5, Sedna, Sonic Flo, Tata Mida, Zeeny, Rilon, Anant, Summit Ralligold WP, Ralligold Gr, Tata Bahaar, Uphaar, Solubor, Glucobeta, Tracel, Surplus
Pendimethalin, Acephate, Hexaconazole, Metribuzin, Metalaxyl Poly Ether Ketone Ketone (PEKK), Metaconazole

Source: Company, PL

July 19, 2019

4

Rallis India

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e Mar Net Revenues
YoY gr. (%) Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit
Margin (%) Employee Cost Other Expenses

FY18 17,909
7.7 10,024
7,886 44.0
1,649 3,592

FY19 19,840
10.8 11,715
8,124 40.9
1,806 3,909

FY20E 21,686
9.3 12,902
8,784 40.5
1,970 4,139

FY21E 24,535
13.1 14,372 10,163
41.4 2,198 4,688

EBITDA YoY gr. (%) Margin (%)

2,645 0.3
14.8

2,409 (8.9) 12.1

2,674 11.0 12.3

3,277 22.5 13.4

Depreciation and Amortization

463

461

597

620

EBIT Margin (%)

2,182 12.2

1,949 9.8

2,077 9.6

2,657 10.8

Net Interest Other Income

43

53

95

83

132

307

220

225

Profit Before Tax Margin (%)

2,270 12.7

2,203 11.1

2,202 10.2

2,799 11.4

Total Tax Effective tax rate (%)

600

655

550

742

26.4

29.7

25.0

26.5

Profit after tax Minority interest Share Profit from Associate

1,670 (6) -

1,548 (6) -

1,651 (2) -

2,057 (2) -

Adjusted PAT YoY gr. (%) Margin (%)
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp)

1,676 (10.2)
9.4 -

1,554 (7.3)
7.8 -

1,653 6.4 7.6 -

2,059 24.5 8.4 -

Reported PAT YoY gr. (%) Margin (%)

1,676 (43.7)
9.4

1,554 (7.3)
7.8

1,653 6.4 7.6

2,059 24.5 8.4

Other Comprehensive Income Total Comprehensive Income Equity Shares O/s (m) EPS (Rs) Source: Company Data, PL Research

1,676
194 8.6

1,554
194 8.0

1,653
194 8.5

2,059
194 10.6

Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar Non-Current Assets

FY18

FY19 FY20E FY21E

Gross Block Tangibles Intangibles

5,133 4,807
326

5,597 5,205
392

6,226 5,756
470

7,826 7,276
550

Acc: Dep / Amortization Tangibles Intangibles

1,355 1,111
244

1,747 1,452
295

2,345 1,922
422

2,965 2,431
534

Net fixed assets Tangibles Intangibles

3,778 3,696
82

3,850 3,753
97

3,881 3,833
48

4,861 4,845
16

Capital Work In Progress Goodwill Non-Current Investments Net Deferred tax assets Other Non-Current Assets

473 1,958
108 (197) 1,049

507 1,958
110 (164) 1,070

1,135 1,958
146 (164)
974

450 1,958
161 (164) 1,233

Current Assets Investments Inventories Trade receivables Cash & Bank Balance Other Current Assets
Total Assets

918 5,722 3,997
334 1,246 19,581

1,055 6,736 4,491
458 1,338 21,462

1,355 7,130 4,426
765 1,475 23,113

1,555 7,730 5,007
888 1,668 25,383

Equity Equity Share Capital Other Equity
Total Networth

194 11,711 11,906

194 12,665 12,859

194 13,499 13,693

194 14,738 14,933

Non-Current Liabilities Long Term borrowings Provisions Other non current liabilities

199

158

113

113

159

219

217

245

-

-

-

-

Current Liabilities

ST Debt / Current of LT Debt

1

Trade payables

5,261

Other current liabilities

1,982

Total Equity & Liabilities

19,581

Source: Company Data, PL Research

530 5,348 2,264 21,462

680 5,941 2,385 23,113

580 6,722 2,699 25,383

July 19, 2019

5

Rallis India

Cash Flow (Rs m)

Y/e Mar

FY18

PBT

2,270

Add. Depreciation

463

Add. Interest

43

Less Financial Other Income

132

Add. Other

(8)

Op. profit before WC changes

2,768

Net Changes-WC

(1,680)

Direct tax

(675)

Net cash from Op. activities

414

Capital expenditures

(574)

Interest / Dividend Income

66

Others

1,392

Net Cash from Invt. activities

884

Issue of share cap. / premium

-

Debt changes

(19)

Dividend paid

(877)

Interest paid

(44)

Others

(96)

Net cash from Fin. activities

(1,036)

Net change in cash

262

Free Cash Flow

(163)

Source: Company Data, PL Research

FY19 2,203
461 -
307 (307) 2,357 (1,170) (655)
532 (464)
307 (10) (168)
487 (586) (53)
6 (145)
219 68

FY20E 2,202 597 220 (96) 2,703 256 (550) 2,409
(1,300) 220
(300) (1,380)
105 (820) (95)
2 (808)
221 1,109

FY21E 2,799 620 225 (6) 3,414 (573) (742) 2,099
(1,000) 225
(200) (975)
(100) (820)
(83) 2
(1,001) 123
1,099

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar

Q2FY19

Net Revenue

6,538

YoY gr. (%)

11.2

Raw Material Expenses

3,797

Gross Profit

2,741

Margin (%)

41.9

EBITDA

1,234

YoY gr. (%)

0.7

Margin (%)

18.9

Depreciation / Depletion

120

EBIT

1,114

Margin (%)

17.0

Net Interest

9

Other Income

89

Profit before Tax

1,194

Margin (%)

18.3

Total Tax

343

Effective tax rate (%)

28.8

Profit after Tax

851

Minority interest

(1)

Share Profit from Associates

-

Adjusted PAT

852

YoY gr. (%)

10.1

Margin (%)

13.0

Extra Ord. Income / (Exp)

-

Reported PAT

852

YoY gr. (%)

10.1

Margin (%)

13.0

Other Comprehensive Income

-

Total Comprehensive Income

852

Avg. Shares O/s (m)

195

EPS (Rs)

4.4

Source: Company Data, PL Research

Q3FY19 4,174 7.0 2,526 1,648 39.5 276 (26.9) 6.6 121 155 3.7 18 59 196 4.7 59 29.9 137 (1) 139 (44.8) 3.3 139 (44.8) 3.3 139 195 0.7

Q4FY19 3,396 (8.5) 1,930 1,466 43.2 67 (79.9) 2.0 105 (38) (1.1) 17 110 55 1.6 42 76.5 13 (2) 15 (92.6) 0.4 15 (92.6) 0.4 15 195 0.1

Q1FY20 6,232 8.7 3,856 2,376 38.1 947 13.9 15.2 143 805 12.9 16 80 869 13.9 194 22.3 675 (2) 677 23.6 10.9 677 23.6 10.9 677 195 3.5

July 19, 2019

Key Financial Metrics YYe/eaMr ar
Per Share(Rs) EPS CEPS BVPS FCF DPS Return Ratio(%) RoCE ROIC RoE Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (x) Net Working Capital (Days) Valuation(x) PER P/B P/CEPS EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Dividend Yield (%) Source: Company Data, PL Research

FY18
8.6 11.0 61.2 (0.8)
3.7
18.5 15.2 14.6
(0.1) 91
18.0 2.5
14.1 11.0
1.6 2.4

FY19 FY20E FY21E

8.0

8.5

10.6

10.4

11.6

13.8

66.1

70.4

76.8

0.3

5.7

5.6

2.5

3.5

3.5

15.2

14.8

17.6

12.1

13.1

15.5

12.5

12.5

14.4

(0.1) 108

(0.1) 94

(0.1) 89

19.4

18.2

14.6

2.3

2.2

2.0

14.9

13.4

11.2

12.1

10.8

8.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.6

2.3

2.3

Key Operating Metrics

Y/e Mar

FY18

Revenues

Standalone

14,985

Metahelix & Others

2,925

EBITDA

Standalone

2,262

Metahelix & Others

382

Source: Company Data, PL Research

FY19
16,715 3,125
2,063 346

FY20E
18,061 3,625
2,294 381

FY21E
20,657 3,878
2,851 427

6

Jul - 16 Jan - 17 Jul - 17 Jan - 18 Jul - 18 Jan - 19 Jul - 19

Price Chart
(Rs) 30 0 26 0 22 1 18 1 14 1

Recommendation History

No.

Date

Rating

1

16-Jul-19 Accumulate

2

8-Jul-19 Accumulate

3

4-Jul-19 Accumulate

4

27-Apr-19 Accumulate

5

5-Apr-19 BUY

6

18-Jan-19 BUY

7

7-Jan-19 BUY

8

24-Oct-18 Accumulate

9

5-Oct-18 Accumulate

Rallis India

TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)

173

154

173

153

173

157

173

150

242

162

242

164

242

170

233

177

262

177

Analyst Coverage Universe Sr. No. CompanyName

1

Bayer Cropscience

2

Dhanuka Agritech

3

Insecticides India

4

P.I. Industries

5

Rallis India

6

Sharda Cropchem

7

UPL

Rating Hold BUY BUY BUY Accumulate Accumulate BUY

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell Not Rated (NR) Under Review (UR)

: > 15% : 5% to 15% : +5% to -5% : -5% to -15% : < -15% : No specific call on the stock : Rating likely to change shortly

TP (Rs) 3,783 578 887 1,278 173 402 752

Share Price (Rs) 3,400 389 673 1,147 154 315 643

July 19, 2019

7

Rallis India

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July 19, 2019

AMNISH AGGARWAL

Digitally signed by AMNISH AGGARWAL DN: c=IN, o=Prabhudas Lilladher Private Limited, ou=organisation, cn=AMNISH AGGARWAL, serialNumber=7a6f13691881d5a8af6353865a61b48b7040e72f4a1bf53182e368b3 ca14a5e4, postalCode=400015, 2.5.4.20=c9b37ca6a8c78a11d6c42a4b6014e984fdf135dc1449611df0dc682d08443 fc6, st=Maharashtra Date: 2019.07.19 23:10:20 +05'30'

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Rallis India (RALI IN)