2014 Vehicle Technologies Market Report

2014Vehicle Technologies Market Report

Quick Facts
Energy and Economics • Transportation accounts for 28% of total U.S. energy consumption. • According to one study, dependence on oil cost the U.S. economy $200 billion in 2013. • The average price of a new car is just over $25,000 (not including light trucks). • Almost 18% of household expenditures are for transportation. • Over 9 million people are employed in the transportation industry.
Light Vehicles • The top nine manufacturers selling vehicles in the U.S. produce 52% of the world’s vehicles. • U.S. sales volumes increased by nearly 50% from 2009 to 2013. • Sales-weighted data on new light vehicles sold show a 124% increase in horsepower and a 47% decrease in 0-60 time from 1980 to 2014, with the fuel economy of vehicles improving 27%. • More than 18% of cars sold in 2013 have continuously variable transmissions. • More than 90% of new light vehicles sold in 2014 have transmissions with more than 5 speeds.
Heavy Trucks • Class 8 combination trucks consume an average of 6.5 gallons per thousand ton-miles. • Class 3 truck sales increased by 95% from 2009 to 2013. • Sales of class 4-7 trucks in 2014 were more than 65% above the 2009 level. • Class 8 truck sales (combination trucks and single-unit trucks) decreased 5% from 2012 to 2013 but were still 95% higher than in 2009. • Diesel comprised 72% of the class 3-8 trucks sold in 2013, up from 69% in 2009. • Combination trucks are driven an average of over 66,000 miles per year. • Idling a truck-tractor’s engine can use more than a gallon of fuel per hour. • There are 113 electrified truck stop sites across the country to reduce truck idling time.
Technologies • From 1999 (when hybrid vehicles were first sold) to 2014, there have been 3.5 million hybrid sales, with almost 450,000 in 2014 alone. • From the first plug-in vehicle sales in 2011 to 2014 about 287 million vehicles have been sold, with just over 118,000 units in 2014. • At least 22 different models of plug-in vehicles are available or coming soon to the market. • Seventy-two flex-fuel vehicle models were offered in model year 2014. • There are more than 10,700 electric vehicle charging stations throughout the nation. • Single wide tires on a Class 8 truck improve fuel economy by more than 7% on flat terrain.
Policy • Plug-in hybrids and electric vehicle purchasers receive a Federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for select 2010-2015 vehicles along with possible state credits. • The proposed EPA greenhouse gas standards for cars raises average fuel economy for new cars to 54.5 mpg by 2025, while the NHTSA Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards are 49.7 mpg by 2025. These average fuel economies were estimated by the two agencies based on the new corporate standards and product plans. • Since model year 2010, diesel engine emission standards are stricter – 0.2 grams per horsepowerhour (g/HP-hr) for nitrogen oxides and 0.01 g/HP-hr for particulate matter.

ORNL/TM-2015/85
2014 VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES MARKET REPORT
Primary Authors:
Stacy C. Davis Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Susan W. Diegel Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Robert G. Boundy Roltek, Inc.
Sheila Moore Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Graphic Design: Debbie Bain
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Prepared for the Vehicle Technologies Office Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy
Prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6073 Managed by
UT-BATTELLE, LLC for the
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY under Contract No. DE-AC05-00R22725

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This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents hat its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

Contents

Page

LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................................................ix

LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................xiii

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................xv

CHAPTER 1: ENERGY AND ECONOMICS ............................................................................................... 1

Transportation Accounts for 28% of Total U.S. Energy Consumption ................................................... 3 The Transportation Sector Currently Uses More Petroleum than the United States Produces ............ 4 Class 8 Trucks Use the Majority of Fuel Consumed by Medium/Heavy Trucks ..................................... 5 Improvements in Fuel Economy for Low-MPG Vehicles Yield the Greatest Fuel Savings...................... 6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Transportation Decreased from 2007................................................. 7 Many Cars Pollute Less Despite Increases in Size .................................................................................. 8 Newer Cars and Light Trucks Emit Fewer Tons of CO2 Annually ............................................................ 9 Total Transportation Pollutants Decline .............................................................................................. 10 Highway Vehicles Responsible for Declining Share of Pollutants ........................................................ 11 Highway Transportation is More Efficient............................................................................................ 12 Vehicle Miles Are Increasingly Disconnected from the Economy ........................................................ 13 Price of Crude Oil Is Affected by World Political and Economic Events ............................................... 14 Oil Price Shocks Are Often Followed by an Economic Recession ......................................................... 15 ORNL Estimates that 2013 Direct and Indirect Oil Dependence Costs $200 Billion ............................ 16 Changes in Energy Prices and Vehicle-Miles of Travel Mirror Each Other........................................... 17 The Average Price of a New Car Is Just over $25,000 .......................................................................... 18 Light Vehicles Priced from $30-35,000 Are the Biggest Sellers in 2013............................................... 19 Twenty-Nine Percent of Survey Respondents Consider Fuel Economy Most Important when
Purchasing a Vehicle ........................................................................................................................ 20 Study Finds More than 60% of Millennials and Generation Xers Use the Internet to Find a
Car Dealer While Less than Half of Baby Boomers Did ................................................................... 21 Hybrid Vehicles Can Save Money over Time ........................................................................................ 22 Car-Sharing and Ride-Summoning Are a Growing Phenomenon ......................................................... 23 Car-Sharing and Ride-Summoning Available across the Nation........................................................... 24 Almost 18% of Household Expenditures Are for Transportation ......................................................... 25 Almost 10 Million People Are Employed in the Transportation Industry ............................................ 26 Americans Employed in Transportation Have Diverse Jobs—From Aerospace Manufacturing
to Trucking ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Manufacturers’ Stock Prices Have Their Ups and Downs .................................................................... 28 American Full-Size Pickups Top the Most Profitable Vehicles List ....................................................... 29

CHAPTER 2: LIGHT VEHICLES.............................................................................................................. 31

Company Profile Section ...................................................................................................................... 33 Chrysler Company Profile ..................................................................................................................... 34 Chrysler’s Fleet Mix .............................................................................................................................. 35 Fiat-Chrysler Debuted the Fiat 500e in 2013 ....................................................................................... 36 Fiat Owns All of Chrysler as of January 2014........................................................................................ 37

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Ford Company Profile ........................................................................................................................... 38 Ford’s Fleet Mix .................................................................................................................................... 39 Ford Hybrid and Plug-In Vehicle Sales Remain Steady for 2014 .......................................................... 40 Ford Continues to Work Closely with Mazda ....................................................................................... 41 General Motors (GM) Company Profile ............................................................................................... 42 GM’s Fleet Mix...................................................................................................................................... 43 Chevrolet Volt is More than Half of GM’s Hybrid and Plug-In Sales in 2014 ....................................... 44 GM Has Many Technology/Design Relationships with Other Manufacturers ..................................... 45 Honda Company Profile........................................................................................................................ 46 Honda’s Fleet Mix ................................................................................................................................. 47 Honda Hybrid Sales Show Growth in 2014........................................................................................... 48 Honda Has Few Interrelationships for a Manufacturer of Its Size ....................................................... 49 Nissan Company Profile........................................................................................................................ 50 Nissan’s Fleet Mix ................................................................................................................................. 51 Nissan Leaf Sales Exceed 30,000 Units in 2014 .................................................................................... 52 Nissan Has Many Manufacturing/Assembly Agreements with Other Manufacturers......................... 53 Toyota Company Profile ....................................................................................................................... 54 Toyota’s Fleet Mix ................................................................................................................................ 55 Toyota Accounted for over Half of All Hybrid and Plug-In Vehicle Sales in 2014 ................................ 56 Toyota Has the Most Interrelationships............................................................................................... 57 Hyundai Company Profile ..................................................................................................................... 58 Hyundai’s Fleet Mix .............................................................................................................................. 59 Hyundai Hybrid Sales Remain Strong ................................................................................................... 60 Hyundai Has a Joint Venture in China .................................................................................................. 61 Kia Company Profile ............................................................................................................................. 62 Kia’s Fleet Mix....................................................................................................................................... 63 Kia’s First All-Electric Vehicle Debuted in 2014 .................................................................................... 64 Kia Is Owned by Hyundai ...................................................................................................................... 65 Volkswagen (VW) Company Profile...................................................................................................... 66 VW’s Fleet Mix...................................................................................................................................... 67 VW Offers a Wide Range of Hybrid and Plug-In Vehicles..................................................................... 68 As One of the Largest Manufacturers in the World, VW Has Few Interrelationships ......................... 69 Summary Comparison of Manufacturers’ Markets.............................................................................. 70 Top Nine Manufacturers Selling Vehicles in the United States Only Produce a Little More than
Half of World’s Vehicles ................................................................................................................. 71 U.S. Sales Volumes Continued to Rise in 2013 ..................................................................................... 72 Market Share Shifted among Manufacturers....................................................................................... 73 Share of Import Cars Declines to Less than 30% of Car Sales in 2013 ................................................. 74 Toyota Imports More Light Vehicles than Other Manufacturers......................................................... 75 Engine Displacement for Cars is Down 5% ........................................................................................... 76 Light Truck Horsepower Increased by 12% from 2010 to 2014 ........................................................... 77 Technology Has Improved Performance More than Fuel Economy .................................................... 78 Horsepower above Fleet Average and Fuel Economy near Fleet Average for Detroit 3
Manufacturers ............................................................................................................................... 79 Fuel Economy above Fleet Average and Weight below or Equal to Fleet Average for Toyota,
Honda, and Nissan ......................................................................................................................... 80

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Fuel Economy above Fleet Average and Horsepower below Fleet Average for Hyundai, Kia and Volkswagen ....................................................................................................................... 81
More than 18% of Cars Sold Have Continuously Variable Transmissions ............................................ 82 Nearly 38% of Light Vehicles Sold Have Gasoline Direct Injection....................................................... 83 Manufacturers Are Using Cylinder Deactivation and Stop-Start Technology to Boost
Fuel Economy................................................................................................................................. 84 The Number of Transmission Speeds Has Been Increasing.................................................................. 85 More than 20 Models of Light Vehicles Are Diesel in Model Year 2014.............................................. 86 Chrysler, Ford, and GM Dominate New Fleet Registrations in 2013 ................................................... 87 Chevrolet Impala Was the Top New Fleet Car in 2013......................................................................... 88 Ford F-Series Was the Top New Fleet Truck in 2013............................................................................ 89 Fleet Management Companies Remarket Vehicles On-Line ................................................................ 90 Light Vehicle Dealer Supplies Change Rapidly...................................................................................... 91 Days to Turn Trend by Vehicle Class..................................................................................................... 92 Many Tier 1 Suppliers Sell More in Europe and Asia than in North America....................................... 93 Top U.S.-Based Tier 1 Suppliers Sell Globally ....................................................................................... 94 U.S.-Based Tier 1 Suppliers Have Been Diversifying Globally over the Past Five Years ....................... 95
CHAPTER 3: HEAVY TRUCKS............................................................................................................... 97
What Types of Trucks Are in Each Truck Class? ................................................................................... 99 Heaviest Trucks Consume an Average of 6.5 Gallons per Thousand Ton-Miles ................................ 100 Medium and Heavy Truck Assembly Plants Are Located throughout the United States................... 101 Few Medium/Heavy Trucks Are Imported ......................................................................................... 102 Class 3 Truck Sales in 2013 Are 127% Higher than 2009.................................................................... 103 Class 4-7 Truck Sales in 2013 Are 66% Higher than 2009................................................................... 104 Class 8 Truck Sales in 2013 Are 95% Higher than 2009 but 5% Lower than 2012 Sales .................... 105 Diesel Engine Use Declines 56% for Class 4 Trucks and Increases 73% for Class 6 Trucks ................ 106 Many Heavy Truck Manufacturers Supply Their Own Diesel Engines................................................ 107 Cummins Leads Heavy Truck Diesel Engine Market........................................................................... 108 Combination Trucks Average over 66,000 Miles per Year ................................................................. 109 Study Conducted of Heavy Trucks at Steady Speed on Flat Terrain .................................................. 110 Roadway Grade Affects Fuel Economy of Class 8 Trucks ................................................................... 111 Idle Fuel Consumption Varies by Type of Truck ................................................................................. 112 Truck Stop Electrification Reduces Idle Fuel Consumption ................................................................ 113 SuperTruck Project Achieves 10.7 Miles per Gallon........................................................................... 114
CHAPTER 4: TECHNOLOGIES ............................................................................................................ 115
Market Penetration for New Automotive Technologies Takes Time ................................................. 117 Gasoline Direct Injection Captures 38% Market Share in Just Seven Years from First
Significant Use.............................................................................................................................. 118 Hybrid Sales Decline by 9% from 2013 to 2014 ................................................................................. 119 Toyota Reigns as Leader of U.S. Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market Share ............................................. 120 Sales from Introduction: Some Plug-In Vehicles Beat Hybrid-Electric Sales ...................................... 121 Plug-In Vehicle Sales Total Nearly 120,000 Units in 2014 .................................................................. 122 Plug-In Vehicles Available from Eleven Manufacturers ..................................................................... 123

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New Plug-In and Fuel Cell Vehicles Are on the Horizon ..................................................................... 124 Primearth EV Energy Supplied the Most Batteries by Number but Panasonic Supplied the Most
Battery Capacity for Model Year 2014......................................................................................... 125 Battery Capacity Varies Widely for Plug-In Vehicles .......................................................................... 126 Hybrid-Electric Vehicles Use Batteries with Capacities up to 2 Kilowatt-Hours ................................ 127 Hybrid Medium and Heavy Vehicles on the Market .......................................................................... 128 Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Medium and Heavy Vehicles on the Market ................................... 129 Flex-Fuel Vehicle Offerings Decline by 13% for Model Year 2014 ..................................................... 130 Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Use Are Mostly Flex-Fuel Vehicles......................................................... 131 Biofuel Stations Spread beyond the Midwest .................................................................................... 132 Most States Have Stations with Propane and Natural Gas ................................................................ 133 Number of Electric Stations and Electric Charging Units Increasing .................................................. 134 Hydrogen Stations Are Mainly in California ....................................................................................... 135 Federal Government Uses Alternative Fuel ....................................................................................... 136 E-85 Vehicles Top Diesels in the Federal Government Fleet.............................................................. 137 Commercial Fleets Use Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Vehicles................................... 138 Use of Lightweight Materials Is on the Rise ....................................................................................... 139 Hybridization and Other Engine Technologies Show the Most Promise for Improving Fuel
Economy of Medium and Heavy Trucks ...................................................................................... 140 SmartWay Technology Program Encourages Heavy Truck Efficiencies ............................................. 141 Some New Engine Technologies Can Improve Fuel Economy and Reduce Emissions ....................... 142 Hybrid Technologies and Transmission Technologies Can Improve Fuel Economy........................... 144 Heavy Vehicles Use Hybrid Technologies in Different Ways.............................................................. 145 Most Highway Operational Energy Losses for Class 8 Trucks Are from Aerodynamics ..................... 146 Some Aerodynamic Technologies Are Widely Adopted..................................................................... 147 Single Wide Tires Improve Fuel Economy of Class 8 Trucks............................................................... 148
CHAPTER 5: POLICY ......................................................................................................................... 149
Federal Tax Credits Encourage the Purchase of Advanced Technology Vehicles .............................. 151 Corporate Average Fuel Economy: Historical Standards and Values ................................................ 152 Corporate Average Fuel Economy Improves for All Manufacturers .................................................. 153 Corporate Average Fuel Economy: Average Fleet-Wide Fuel Economies for Future Cars and
Light Trucks .................................................................................................................................. 154 Corporate Average Fuel Economy: Sliding Scale Standards for New Cars and Light Trucks .............. 155 Vehicle Footprints Are Used for Corporate Average Fuel Economy .................................................. 156 Chrysler Has the Highest Car Footprint and General Motors Has the Highest Light
Truck Footprint ......................................................................................................................... 157 Nissan, Tesla, and Honda Have Sold CAFE Credits ............................................................................. 158 Nearly All Manufacturers Have CAFE Credits at the End of 2012 ...................................................... 159 Zero-Emission Vehicle Standards in Eight States and Low Carbon Fuel Standards in
Development in 13 States............................................................................................................ 160 Nissan and Tesla Transferred Over 500 Zero Emission Vehicle Credits Out while Honda and
Mercedes Benz Transferred Over 500 Credits In ......................................................................... 161 Nissan Has Largest Zero Emission Vehicle Credit Balance ................................................................. 162 Tier 3 Sets New Light Gasoline Vehicle Emission Standards for NMOG+NOx.................................... 163 Tier 3 Particulate Emission Standards for Light Gasoline Vehicles Are Phased in Over Six Years...... 164

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Fuel Consumption Standards Set for Heavy Pickups and Vans .......................................................... 165 Fuel Consumption Standards Set for Combination Tractors .............................................................. 166 Fuel Consumption Standards Set for Vocational Vehicles ................................................................. 167 Diesel Engine Fuel Consumption Standards Are Set .......................................................................... 168 Energy Policy Act Encourages Idle Reduction Technologies .............................................................. 169 Idle Reduction Technologies Excluded from Federal Excise Taxes .................................................... 170 Longer Combination Trucks Are Only Permitted on Some Routes .................................................... 171 Heavy Truck Speed Limits Are Inconsistent ....................................................................................... 172 EPA Finalizes Stricter Standards for Gasoline..................................................................................... 173 Diesel Sulfur Standards Set as 15 Parts per Million ........................................................................... 174 Emission Standards on Diesel Engines Are More Strict...................................................................... 175 Effect of Emission Standards on Heavy Truck Sales ........................................................................... 176

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