Indus Towers (BHAINF)


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Indus Towers (BHAINF)

CMP: | 199

Target: | 205 (3%)

Target Period: 12 months May 9, 2022

Renewals at competitive rates to restrict FY23 growth

HOLD

Result Update

May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-21 Nov-21 May-22
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

About the stock: Indus Towers was formed by the merger of Bharti Infratel and Indus Towers. This combined strength makes Indus one of the largest telecom tower companies in the world.
 It has 185447 towers and 335791 co-locations (as on Q4FY22) and a nationwide presence covering all 22 telecom circles.
Q4FY22 Results: Reported a weak operating performance on adjusted basis.
 The company reported net addition of 685 co-locations vs. 2555 co-location addition in Q2, and much lower than last four quarters. Rental revenues came in at | 4745 crore, up 7.9% QoQ. We highlight that Q4FY22 rental revenues included one-time provision reversal of ~| 547.3 crore. This was partially offset by lower exit revenue of | 28.3 crore vs. | 185 crore in Q3. On adjusted basis, rental revenues were down 1% QoQ
 Adjusting for provision reversal benefit, EBITDA was at | 3515 crore, up 3% QoQ and margins of 53.5%, flattish QoQ. PAT came in at | 1828.5 crore (up 16.4% QoQ), largely owing to provision reversal benefit. Adjusted PAT of | 1418 crore, down 9.7% QoQ was lower
What should investors do? Indus’ share price has been down ~13% over the past five years owing to concerns over its key tenant (VIL) survival.
 Despite likely Vodafone Idea survival, near term growth challenges remain with likely competitive renewals terms. We also await further details on potential of growth in the adjacent areas such as small cells/ in building solutions etc. We maintain HOLD on the stock
Target Price and Valuation: We value Indus at | 205 i.e. 5x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Particulars
P ar ti cul ar s Market Capitalization (| crore) Total Debt (| crore) Cash & Investments (|crore) EV (| crore) 52 week H/L (|) Equity capital (| crore) Face value (| )

Amount 53,601.6 5,486.8 2,632.3 56,456.1 333/ 192 2,694.9
10.0

Shareholding pattern

Jun-21 Sep-21

Promoters 69.9 69.9

DII

2.5 2.4

FIIs

26.8 26.8

Other

0.9 0.9

D ec-21 69.9 2.8 26.1 1.2

Mar -22 67.5 2.7 28.2 1.6

Price Chart

400

20000

300

15000

200

100

10000

0

5000

Key triggers for future price performance:  In the medium term, opportunities in adjacent areas (viz. small cells/smart cities/in building solutions/active network sharing) will drive growth along with overall tenancy demand from 5G transition  Normalisation of VIL stress, which is stretching working capital
Alternate Stock Idea: Besides Indus Towers, we like Bharti Airtel in telecom space.  A play on consolidation of sector and improving metrics.  BUY with target price of | 860

Indus(LHS)

Nifty Index

Key risks
Key Risk: (i) Stressed working capital impacting cash flow generation; (ii) Stronger than expected tenancy demand in 5G
Research Analyst
Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA [email protected]

Key Financial Summary

(Year-end March)

FY20

FY21

FY22E 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22)

FY23E

Net Sales (| crore)

14,647.2

25,672.9

27,717.2

NA

27,610.5

EBITDA (| crore)

7,350.0

13,096.9

14,900.7

NA

14,207.1

Adjusted Net Profit (| crore)

3,298.7

4,975.1

6,235.2

NA

5,563.5

Adj. EPS (|)

17.8

18.5

23.1

20.6

P/E (x)

11.3

10.9

8.5

9.8

Price / Book (x)

2.8

3.4

2.5

2.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

8.3

5.5

4.8

5.1

RoCE (%)

18.1

21.7

23.3

23.2

RoE (%)

24.4

31.3

28.1

29.9

s

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research; Indus and Infratel merged in FY21 and thus prior period numbers are not comparable.

FY24E 28,528.4 14,608.6 5,777.1
21.4 9.4 2.9 4.9 24.2 30.9

2 yr CAGR (FY22-24E) 1.5 (1.0) (3.7)

Result Update | Indus Towers
Key performance highlight and outlook
Tenancy addition moderates…
On a gross basis, Indus added 2971 tenancies while gross exits were 416. Consequently, net addition of 685 co-locations vs. 2555 co-location addition in Q3, was much lower than last four quarters. The tower addition at ~699 was also lower than last few quarters run rate. We note that while Indus is “hoping” for continued healthy traction riding on network transformation due to data usage explosion, competitive coverage, we would monitor tenancy addition ahead. We highlight hat key vendor Airtel has indicated it is largely done with 4G expansion, VIL continues to lag in network spends. The addition of lean towers/small cells etc, also needs to be monitored for their likely implication for growth. We expect net co-locations to reach 353579 in FY24 vs. FY22 co-location count of 335791. We expect reported rentals (including exit rentals) to witness 1.1% CAGR in FY22-24E to | 17699 crore.
One offs aid topline/margins; renewals signals rental discounts
We highlight that Q4FY22 rental revenues included one-time provision reversal of ~| 547.3 crore. This was partially offset by lower exit revenue of | 28.3 crore vs. | 185 crore in Q3. On adjusted basis, therefore, rental revenues were down 1% QoQ. We highlight that while the company has not shared details, it indicated that it has completed tenancy renewal renegotiation with one large customer and has offered competitive prices. This implies discount to rates prevalent in FY22 and thus risk of like to like rental decline. It is also in discussion with another operator for renewal of tenancies.
VIL stress continues to stretch working capital
The company saw a decline in receivables by ~| 293 crore QoQ to | 7059 crore. The debtor improvement was underwhelming as it was despite | 3375 crore payment made by VIL from equity infusion by Vodafone Plc. While the VIL stress has been there since last couple of quarter, Indus remains confident of recovery. It expects the telecom package, tariff hikes, and fund-raising plans to improve VIL’s liquidity and thus ability to pay on time, going ahead.
Other highlights
 The capex remained underwhelming at | 634.8 crore during Q4FY22 (vs. | 710.7 crore in Q3FY22).
The tenancy addition momentum has seen some softness after decent traction in last few quarter. We await clarity on renewal terms and discounts offered by the company. Vodafone Idea survival odds has improved and thus risk on current tenancy is lower, albeit higher debtors amount has stressed the balance sheet of Indus. The clarity on long term tenancy growth outlook along with planned foray in allied activities such as smart cities or fibre etc. are the other key things to watch out for. We maintain our HOLD recommendation with a revised target price of | 205/share (vs. | 280, earlier), as we cut earnings and assign target EV/EBITDA of 5x on FY24 EBITDA vs. 6x FY24E earlier, given the lower growth visibility.

ICICI Direct Research

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2

Result Update | Indus Towers

ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Revenue Other Income

Q4FY22 7,116.3
109.0

Q4FY22E 6,895.4 90.0

Q4FY21 6,491.8
77.2

Q3FY22 YoY (% )

6,927.4

9.6

93.9 41.2

QoQ (% ) 2.7 16.1

Comments
The rental revenues came in at | 4745 crore, up 7.9% QoQ. We highlight that Q4FY22 rental revenues included one-time provision reversal of ~| 547.3 crore. This was partially offset by lower exit revenue of | 28.3 crore | 185 crore in Q3. On adjusted basis, rental revenues were down -1%. The energy revenues came in at |2372 crore, down 6.3% QoQ.

Employee Expenses Power and Fuel Other Expenses Repairs and Maintenance

205.9 199.1 177.4 194.3 16.1

6.0

2,400.8 2,612.2 2,374.5 2,567.6

1.1

-6.5

103.5

179.3 155.2 128.2 -33.3

-19.3

344.1 341.1 371.9 338.6 -7.5

1.6

EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Exceptional Items
Total Tax
PAT

4,062.0 57.1
1,364.9 374.7 0.0
602.9
1,828.5

3,563.7 51.7
1,334.0 379.3 0.0

3,412.8 52.6
1,332.3 361.9 0.0

3,698.7 53.4
1,324.4 379.3 0.0

19.0 369 bps
2.4 3.5 NA

485.1 432.0 518.1 39.6

1,455.3 1,363.8 1,570.8 34.1

9.8 369 bps
3.1 0.0 NA

Higher margins due to one off provision reversal

16.4

16.4

Towers (Consolidated)

1,85,447 1,86,148 1,79,225 1,84,748

3.5

0.4

Tenancy Ratio (x) (Consolidated)

1.81

1.81 1.81 1.81

0.0

-0.2

Sharing revenue per tower p.m

85,445 79,609 77,825 79,609

9.8

7.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Change in Estimates

(| Crore) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) PAT EPS (|)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Old 28,312.6 14,716.0
52.0 6,094.4
22.6

FY23E
New 27,610.5 14,207.1
51.5 5,563.5
20.6

% Change -2.5 -3.5
-52 bps -8.7 -8.7

Old 29,460.8 15,378.3
52.2 6,490.2
24.1

FY24E New
28,528.4 14,608.6
51.2 5,777.1
21.4

% Change -3.2 Realign estimates -5.0
-99 bps -11.0 -11.0

Proforma merged entity KPI and assumptions

Towers (No.) Tenancy Ratio (x) Total Co-locations (No.) Sharing revenue per tower p.m Sharing Revenue (| Crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY20P 1,69,002
1.85 3,11,111
77,706 15,752.2

FY21P 1,79,225
1.81 3,22,438
77,408 16,369.1

FY22P 1,85,447
1.80 3,35,791
79,075 17,301.8

FY23E 1,91,453
1.80 3,43,219
75,889 17,161.6

FY24E 1,99,227
1.78 3,53,579
75,504 17,698.8

Combined entity proforma assumptions

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3

(%) 12587 13097 14901 14207 14609
(| Crore)

(| Crore) 15,752 16,369 17,302 17,162 17,699
(x)

Result Update | Indus Towers
Financial story in charts

Exhibit 2: Tenancy, sharing revenues

20,000

2.0

15,000 10,000

1.85

1.81

1.80

1.80

1.78 1.8

5,000

0 FY20P

FY21P

FY22P

FY23E

1.5 FY24E

Sharing Revenue

Tenancy ratio (x)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research *Proforma merged entity figures for prior period for like to like comparison
Exhibit 3: Energy revenues, energy cost trends

12000 9000

9,810.2 9,673.7

9,583.1 9,303.8

10,110.7 10,265.8

10,448.9 10,448.9

10,829.6 10,829.6

(| Crore)

6000

FY20P

FY21P Energy Revenues

FY22E

FY23E

Energy Costs

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research *Proforma merged entity figures for prior period for like to like comparison

FY23E

Exhibit 4: EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend

56.0

54.0

52.0

50.0

49.2

48.0

46.0 FY20P

53.8 51.5 51.0
FY2E1BPITDA FY22EEBITDA maFrYg2in3sE(LHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research *Proforma merged entity figures for prior period for like to like comparison

51.2 FY24E

16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000

ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | Indus Towers

ICICI Direct Research

Financial Summary

Exhibit 5: Profit and loss statement

(Year-end March)

FY21

Total operating Income

25,672.9

Growth (%)

NA

Other Income

298.3

Total Revenue

25,971.2

Rent

0.0

Employee Expenses

768.1

Power and Fuel

9,583.1

Other Expenses

781.0

Repairs & Maintenance

1,443.8

Total Operating Expenditure

12,576.0

EBI T D A

13,096.9

Growth (%)

NA

Depreciation

5,339.4

Interest

1,402.1

Other Income

298.3

PBT

6,653.7

Exceptional Items

0.0

Total Tax

1,678.6

PAT

4,975.1

Growth (%)

NA

EPS (|)

18.5

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY22E 27,717.2
8.0 352.5 28,069.7
0.0 772.2 10,265.8 431.8 1,346.7
12,816.5
14,900.7 13.8
5,325.2 1,497.3
352.5 8,430.7
0.0 2,057.6 6,373.1
28.1 23.1

FY23E 27,610.5
-0.4 280.0 27,890.5
0.0 832.2 10,448.9 712.3 1,409.9
13,403.4
14,207.1 -4.7
5,529.2 1,520.0
280.0 7,437.9
0.0 1,874.3 5,563.5
-12.7 20.6

| crore FY24E
28,528.4 3.3
280.0 28,808.4
0.0 870.6 10,829.6 741.7 1,477.8
13,919.8
14,608.6 2.8
5,645.2 1,520.0
280.0 7,723.4
0.0 1,946.3 5,777.1
3.8 21.4

Exhibit 6: Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)

FY21

Profit after Tax

4,975.1

Add: Depreciation

5,339.4

Add: Interest Paid

1,402.1

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets

-278.5

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions

-268.1

CF from operating activities

11,170.0

(Inc)/dec in Investments

1,666.8

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets

-3,586.8

Others

-1,395.7

CF from investing activities

-3,315.7

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity

0.0

Inc/(dec) in loan funds

1,196.5

Dividend paid & dividend tax

-6,565.4

Interest Paid

-1,402.1

Others

-1,350.3

CF from financing activities

-8,121.3

Net Cash flow

-267.0

Opening Cash

282.5

Closing Cash

15.5

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY22E 6,373.1 5,325.2 1,497.3 -2,383.0 -2,590.5 8,222.1
619.3 -4,500.0
-249.1
-4,129.8
0.0 868.8 -4,042.4 -1,497.3 673.7 -3,997.2 95.1 14.5 109.6

| crore

FY23E

FY24E

5,563.5 5,777.1

5,529.2 5,645.2

1,520.0 1,520.0

-666.9

-823.2

-182.8

15.5

11,763.0 12,134.6

-200.0

-200.0

-4,000.0 -4,000.0

0.0

0.0

-4,200.0 -4,200.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-4,581.3 -5,389.8

-1,520.0 -1,520.0

1,171.8 -1,300.0

-4,929.5 -8,209.8

2,633.5

-275.2

109.6 2,743.1

2,743.1 2,467.9

Exhibit 7: Balance Sheet (Year-end March) Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Others Total Liabilities Assets
Gross Block
Accumulated Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets Right of Use Investments Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Others Assets Application of Funds
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY21
2,694.9 13,182.1 15,877.0 6,970.3
70.3 14,153.3 37,070.9
67,740.9 47,502.7 20,238.2
273.6 20,511.8 10,211.0 2,271.4 3,828.5 4,009.2
559.5 14.5 8,411.7 3,258.8 1,614.7 2,999.3 7,872.8 538.9 2,186.8 37,070.9

FY22E
2,694.9 19,455.6 22,150.5 5,486.8
91.8 14,956.2 42,685.3
72,335.8 53,031.9 19,303.9
178.7 19,482.6 10,921.0 1,652.1 7,058.6 3,476.7
244.9 980.2 11,760.4 2,129.3 1,773.3 1,379.7 5,282.3 6,478.1 2,550.3 42,685.3

FY23E
2,694.9 20,137.9 22,832.8 4,486.8
91.8 14,956.2 42,367.6
76,335.8 58,561.1 17,774.7
178.7 17,953.4 10,921.0 1,852.1 7,035.0 4,156.0
256.2 2,743.1 14,190.2 2,118.1 1,675.7 1,305.7 5,099.5 9,090.8 2,550.3 42,367.6

| crore FY24E
2,694.9 20,225.2 22,920.1 3,486.8
91.8 14,956.2 41,454.9
80,335.8 64,206.3 16,129.6
178.7 16,308.3 10,921.0 2,052.1 7,268.9 4,723.6
277.9 2,467.9 14,738.2 2,188.5 1,644.9 1,281.6 5,115.0 9,623.2 2,550.3 41,454.9

Exhibit 8: Key ratios (Year-end March) Per share data (|) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (% ) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY21
18.5 38.3 58.9 20.1 0.1
51.0 19.4 54.4 46.3
31.3 21.7 37.4
10.9 5.5 2.1 3.4
0.5 0.4 1.1 1.1

FY22E
23.6 43.4 82.2 15.0 3.6
53.8 22.5 93.0 28.0
28.1 23.3 38.6
8.5 4.8 2.0 2.5
0.4 0.2 2.0 2.0

FY23E
20.6 41.2 84.7 17.0 10.2
51.5 20.2 93.0 28.0
24.4 21.1 36.0
9.8 4.8 2.0 2.4
0.3 0.2 2.2 2.2

FY24E
21.4 42.4 85.0 20.0 9.2
51.2 20.3 93.0 28.0
25.2 22.3 38.5
9.4 4.6 1.9 2.4
0.2 0.2 2.4 2.4

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Result Update | Indus Towers

ICICI Direct Research

RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research
ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

[email protected]

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Result Update | Indus Towers

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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Indus Towers (BHAINF)