Relaxo Footwears (RELFOO)


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Result Update

Relaxo Footwears (RELFOO)

CMP: | 1018

Target: | 1100 (8%)

Target Period: 12 months May 16, 2022

RM inflation dents margins; long term story intact….
About the stock: Relaxo is India’s leading footwear manufacturing company, boasting of largest capacity of 10.0 lakh pairs per day. It is a dominant player in the open footwear space (~80% of sales), with its strong portfolio of brands (‘Flite’, ‘Bahamas’, ‘Sparx’, ‘Relaxo).
 Market leader in value priced segment selling ~19 crore pairs annually
 Relaxo, over the years, has maintained b/s prudence with controlled working capital cycle, healthy asset turns of 2.5x and generating RoCE of 20%+

Q4FY22 Results: Higher inflationary raw material pressure hampered profitability.
 Revenue de-grew 7% YoY to | 698.2 crore. Volumes declined 26% YoY as calibrated price hikes (up 27% YoY), impacted consumer sentiments
 On account of input cost inflation (crude based) and a significantly higher base, EBITDA margins declined 586 bps YoY (44 bps QoQ) to 15.9%
 PAT for the quarter declined 38% YoY (down 10% QoQ) to | 62.92 crore
What should investors do? Relaxo has been an exceptional performer with stock price appreciating at ~ 35% CAGR in the last five years.
 Relaxo has witnessed ~18% decline in share price since our last result update owing to unprecedented inflation scenario (35% RM based on crude derivatives) and uncertainties on the demand outlook. We remain structurally positive on the business model given its strong brand salience in tier II/III towns and healthy balance sheet to weather the crisis. However, premium valuations and near term headwinds may cap upsides. Hence, we reiterate HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price
Target Price and Valuation: We value Relaxo at | 1100 i.e. 65x FY24E EPS

Key triggers for future price performance:
 Despite selling ~18 crore pairs, Relaxo’s current market share is <10%. Given its robust balance sheet and strong brand patronage, we believe there is enough headroom for long-term growth and market share gains
 While the north region remains the main fortress for the company (50%+ revenues), west and south remain relatively underpenetrated markets. Relaxo has geo-tagged ~100000 outlets (currently present in ~60000 outlets), which signifies immense opportunity to penetrate new territories
 We model revenue CAGR of 18.5% in FY22-24E with volumes expected to pick up pace in FY24E (as customers get accustomed to price hikes). Expect margins to improve 260 bps to 18% in FY22-24E

Alternate Stock Idea: Apart from Relaxo, in our retail coverage we also like Bata.
 Bata India has a strong b/s, diversified branded product portfolio and pan India network, which would enable sustained long term profitable growth
 BUY with a target price of | 2360

HOLD

Particulars
P ar ti cul ar s
Market Capitalisation (| crore) Total Debt (FY22) (| crore) Cash & invetment (FY22) (| crore) EV (| crore) 52 Week H / L Equity Capital (| crore) Face Value (|)

Amount
25,256.6 20.0 206.8
25,069.8 1447 /898
24.9 1.0

Shareholding pattern

Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22

Promoter

70.9 70.9 70.9 70.8 70.8

FII

3.9

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.2

DII

7.0

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.9

Others

18.2 18.3 18.4 18.3 19.1

Price Chart

1600 1400 1200 1000
800 600 400 200
0

30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

Relaxo

BSE 500

Recent event & key risks
 Gross margin contraction owing to higher input costs
 Key Risk: (i) Re-imposition of lockdown can lower sales (ii) Better than expected margin can lead to higher profitability
Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda bhara[email protected]
Cheragh Sidhwa [email protected]

May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Key Financial Summary
Fi nanci al s
Net Sales EBITDA Adjusted PAT P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY20
2,410.5 409.0 226.3 111.6 10.5 61.8 23.9 17.8

FY21
2,359.2 495.5 291.6 86.7 10.6 50.3 26.0 18.5

FY22
2,653.3 415.8 232.7 108.9 9.5 60.6 18.3 13.2

5 year CAGR
(FY17-22) 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

FY23E
3,120.2 496.1 287.6 88.1 8.0 50.2 20.7 14.8

FY24E
3,728.1 682.2 422.7 59.9 6.6 36.3 26.3 19.0

2 year CAGR
(FY22-24E) 18.5% 28.1% 34.8%

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter
 Relaxo reported weak revenue growth, significantly weighed down by subdued volumes. Revenue for the quarter declined 7% YoY (6% QoQ) to | 698.9 crore. Steep price hike (~25% YoY) and a very strong base resulted in volumes declining by ~26% YoY to 4.2 crore pairs in Q4FY22. The quarter was further impacted by covid related disruptions in Jan and increase in GST rates from 5% to 12% for footwear priced below | 1000. For FY22, the company registered 12% YoY topline growth to | 2653 crore with average realisations of | 150/pair (up 22% YoY). Relaxo in FY21 had recorded its highest sales volume (19.1 crore pairs) as the pandemic led restrictions had given a fillip to demand for open footwear (slippers & sandals). However, as restrictions eased in FY22, demand for open footwear (~80% of sales) started to moderate
 In FY21, the company had recorded one of the best EBITDA margins to the tune of 21%, which was on the back of benign RM prices (highest ever gross margins of ~58%) and lower marketing spends. With prices of crude based polymers reversing sharply in FY22 (certain RM prices as high as 80% YoY), coupled with normalisation of selling and admin expenses, average quarterly margins declined to 16%. The company has taken four price hikes in FY22 amounting to ~ 25% increase YoY, which is the highest in its history in a single year. While the current price hike should be adequate to maintain current level of gross margins (52-53%), the company continues to monitor the dynamic situation and will take appropriate action keeping in mind the competitive pricing strategy
 On the balance sheet front, the company has witnessed a significant increase in inventory (up 60% YoY) with net working capital days increasing to 97 (vs. average 60 days). Apart from higher RM prices, the reason for increase in inventory days is increase in RM inventory (to avoid disruption of production in a rising input cost scenario). Also, lower sales have led to higher finished good inventory further pressurising the working capital position of the company. Increased sales of sports/athleisure shoes, which has a higher lead time has also contributed to the increase in inventory. The company expects the situation to improve over the next two quarters as the company is able to liquidate the finished good inventory. Despite negative FCF in FY22, Relaxo continues to have healthy cash and investments worth | 200+ crore
Q4FY22 conference call highlights:
 The management indicated that the overall business scenario remained challenging owing to significant increase in product prices across categories (due to higher input cost and GST rate hike) negatively impacting volume growth. Volumes saw a significant decline after the latest price hike taken in December 2021 but volumes are recovering as the consumers get used to the new price levels. The average price increase across categories has been ~ 25%
 The consumer sentiment is a bit subdued due to high inflation, which is particularly impacting the lower priced products. There are instances of down trading by consumers in favour of unorganised players in low price point products due to negative impact on the purchasing power of consumers. However, the management indicated that it is a transitionary phase and consumers would revert to aspirational branded products like Relaxo as the quality of products offered by unbranded players is inferior to that offered by Relaxo. Also, the management indicated that the impact on volumes has been more in rural and urban areas while metros have performed better
 On the raw material scenario, the management indicated that things have not yet stabilised and the company is monitoring the situation and will take appropriate action keeping in mind the competitive pricing strategy
 On the margin front, the management indicated that FY22 margins have been impacted due input cost inflation and GST support to dealers/distributors (Q3FY22- | 15-18 crore, Q4FY22 | 8-10 crore). The management is hopeful of achieving EBITDA margin in line with its FY20 performance of ~ 17%
 The normalisation of consumer footfalls and opening up of schools, colleges and offices has led to increased demand for closed footwear while demand for open footwear has been lower than it was in the pandemic period
 Channel wise, e-commerce is the among the fastest growing channels and its share has increased from 10% in FY21 to 11.5% in FY22. Online revenue share for Relaxo’s Sparx brand was at 25%. The company expects the growth momentum for the e-commerce channel to sustain driven by increased spend on the e-commerce channel and consequent increase in its share in the overall revenue over next few years. The company does not adopt a different pricing strategy for the e-commerce channel. Also, margins are in line with the overall company margin
 Over the last two years, the company has restructured its distribution footprint. The company has reduced the number of distributors from 800 two years ago to ~ 680 in FY22. Relaxo has removed the low performing distributors as cost of servicing those distributors was higher compared to other distributors on account of low revenues generated through them. On the overall retail touch points, the company has added 10000 outlets (mainly in west & south) in FY22 to and total number of retail touch points currently stands at 60000 outlets
 Brand wise, Hawaii contributes 25% of total revenue while Flight and Sparx contribute 37% and 38%, respectively. Shoes contribute ~ 60% of Sparx revenues while rest 40% is contributed by sandals. The price increase has been more in Hawaii and Bahamas because of higher proportion of EVA (price of which has spiralled over the last few quarters) used in these products

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

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Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

 The company currently has a capacity of manufacturing 10 lakh pieces per day and is operating at a capacity utilisation of ~ 65% and is not looking to increase the capacity in the near term
 North India continues to be the dominant revenue generating region for the company with revenue share of 50%, while east contributes 18% and west and south India contribute 18% and 13%, respectively. The Northern and eastern regions have seen more volume decline compared to west and southern regions

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

3

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q 4FY 22

Revenue

698.2

Raw Material Expense Gross Profit

319.5 378.7

Gross Profit Margin

54.2

Employee exp Other Exp EBITDA

89.9 177.7 111.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

15.9

Depreciation

28.7

Other Income

5.9

Interest

3.9

Exceptional Income

-

PBT

84.4

Tax Outgo

21.5

PAT

62.9

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q 4FY 21
747.7
322.8 424.9
56.8
89.4 172.6 162.9 21.8
27.0 6.9 5.2
137.6 35.4

YoY (% ) -6.6 -1.0 -10.9
-259 bps 0.6 2.9 -31.8
-587 bps 6.5 -14.2 -24.9
-38.6 -39.3

Q 3FY 22
743.5
348.0 395.5
53.2
84.7 189.2 121.6 16.4
29.1 5.5 4.1
94.0 23.9

QoQ (% ) -6.1 -8.2 -4.3
104 bps 6.1 -6.1 -8.6
-44 bps -1.3 8.0 -3.9

Comments Volumes declined by 26% YoY to 4.2 crore pairs. Realisations increased 27% YoY to | 165/pair
Gross margins declined YoY owing to higher RM inflation
Owing to negative operating leverage, EBITDA margins declined marginally by 587 bps YoY

-10.1 -9.9

102.2

-38.4

70.1

-10.2

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

4

4.7 5.0 5.7
4.2 4.6 4.5
123 134 131
118 155 165 166

Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22

| crore

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E

9.2 10.0 10.8
12.3 13.6 13.5 15.7 18.4 17.9 19.1 17.5 18.4 21.3

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

1009.8 1211.8
1480.8 1713.0 1631.2 1941.1 2292.1 2410.5 2359.2 2653.3 3120.2 3728.1

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears
Financial story in charts
Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume trend (crore pairs) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 4: Revenue trend 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: Volume trend (crore pairs) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 3: Realisation trend (|/ pair) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 6: Realisation trend (| /pair) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

80 94 101 112 121 126 121 123 125 135 124 152 170 175

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

5

| crore %

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

Exhibit 7: EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend

800

21.0

18.3 25

700 600

15.6

17.0

15.7 15.9 682.2 20

500 12.1 13.5 14.1 14.2

14.1

495.5

496.1

409.0

415.8

15

400

302.1 324.3

300

200.6 241.1 230.9

10

200 146.6

5

100

0

0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

EBITDA

EBITDA Margin

Exhibit 8: Net profit trend

450

400 350 300

| crore

250

200

150

120.3 103.0

100 65.6

50
0 FY14 FY15 FY16

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

120.0 FY17

161.1 175.4 FY18 FY19

226.3 FY20

422.7 287.6 291.6 232.7
FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E

Exhibit 9: Net working capital days
120.0

92.6 96.6

100.0

75.0 70.0

65.3 58.9

67.8 26.1 27.8
66.0

63.9 31.3 30.4
64.8

59.0 32.6 32.9
58.8

64.9 27.6 28.1
64.4

80.0

60.0

30.0 35.0

30.0 35.0

34.5 30.5

28.1 34.5

40.0

20.0

0.0

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23E

FY24E

Inventory Days Debtor Days Creditor Days Cash cycle

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

75.0 70.0

ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

6

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

Financial Summary

Exhibit 10: Profit and loss statement

(Year-end March)

FY21A

Net Sales

2,359.2

Growth (%)

(2.1)

Total Raw Material Cost

1,003.3

Gross Margins (%) Employee Expenses

57.5 301.4

Other Expenses

559.0

Total Operating Expenditure EBI T D A

1,863.7 495.5

EBITDA Margin

21.0

Interest Depreciation

17.1 110.0

Other Income

22.8

Exceptional Expense

-

PBT

391.2

Total Tax

99.6

Profit After Tax

291.6

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY22E
2,653.3 12.5
1,216.7 54.1 334.7 686.1
2,237.5 415.8 15.7 15.3 113.5 23.7 310.6 77.9 232.7

FY23E
3,120.2 17.6
1,460.3 53.2 368.2 795.7
2,624.1 496.1 15.9 17.9 123.9 30.0 384.3 96.7 287.6

| crore FY24E
3,728.1 19.5
1,696.3 54.5 425.0 924.6
3,045.8 682.2 18.3 20.2 132.2 35.0 564.8 142.2 422.7

Exhibit 11: Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)

FY21A

Profit/(Loss) after taxation

291.6

Add: Depreciation

110.0

Net Increase in Current Assets

56.0

Net Increase in Current Liabilities CF from operating activities

62.0 519.6

(Inc)/dec in Investments

-338.0

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others

-123.3 -13.4

CF from investing activities

-474.7

Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital

0.0

Inc / (Dec) in Loan

-19.2

Others

-22.2

CF from financing activities

-41.3

Net Cash flow

3.6

Opening Cash

4.1

Closing Cash

7.7

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY22E
232.7 113.5 -271.6 -12.2 62.5 143.9 -150.5
1.7 -4.8 0.1 20.0 -72.8 -52.8 4.9 7.7 12.6

| crore

FY23E FY24E

287.6

422.7

123.9

132.2

13.7 -189.5

78.4 503.6

59.3 424.6

-107.2

45.0

-109.8 9.1

-107.0 0.0

-208.0

-62.0

0.0

0.0

-20.0

0.0

-139.2 -188.3

-159.2 -188.3

136.4

174.3

12.6

148.9

149.0

323.2

Exhibit 12: Balance Sheet (Year-end March)
Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Non Current Liabilities Source of Funds

FY21A
24.8 1,547.6 1,572.4
164.0 1,736.4

Gross block Less: Accum depreciation Net Fixed Assets Capital WIP Intangible assets Investments Inventory Cash Debtors Loans & Advances & Other CA Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions & Other CL Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets LT L& A, Other Assets Other Assets Application of Funds
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

975.3 254.2 721.1 112.2 39.1 338.2 422.1
7.7 181.5 146.1 757.3 222.8 216.6 439.4 318.0 207.9
0.0 1,736.4

FY22E
24.9 1,735.0 1,759.9
20.0 173.9 1,953.8
1,099.6 330.2 769.4 145.2 32.4 194.3 673.3 12.5 250.8 97.2 1,033.7 221.7 205.5 427.2 606.5 206.1 0.0 1,953.8

FY23E
24.9 1,922.0 1,946.9
173.9 2,120.8
1,219.6 415.6 804.0 135.0 32.4 301.5 641.1 148.9 256.5 110.0 1,156.5 299.2 206.4 505.6 650.8 197.1 0.0 2,120.7

| crore FY24E
24.9 2,196.7 2,221.6
173.9 2,395.5
1,349.6 507.4 842.2 112.0 32.4 256.5 766.0 323.2 306.4 124.6 1,520.2 357.5 207.4 564.9 955.3 197.1 0.0 2,395.5

Exhibit 13: Key ratios (Year-end March)
Per share data (|) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA margins PBT margins Net Profit margins Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Sales Market Cap / Revenues Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt / Equity Debt/EBITDA
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

FY21A
11.7 16.2 63.3 0.0 0.3
21.0 16.6 12.4 65.3 28.1 34.5
18.5 26.0 34.6
86.7 50.3 10.6 10.7 16.1
0.0 0.0 1.7 0.7

FY22E
9.3 13.9 70.7 2.5 0.5
15.7 11.7 8.8 92.6 34.5 30.5
13.2 18.3 20.8
108.9 60.6 9.5 9.5 14.4
0.0 0.0 2.4 0.8

FY23E
11.6 16.5 78.2 4.1 6.0
15.9 12.3 9.2 75.0 30.0 35.0
14.8 20.7 27.3
88.1 50.2 8.0 8.1 13.0
0.0 0.0 2.0 0.7

FY24E
17.0 22.3 89.3 6.0 13.0
18.3 15.2 11.3 75.0 30.0 35.0
19.0 26.3 35.9
59.9 36.3 6.6 6.8 11.4
0.0 0.0 2.1 0.8

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

7

Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research
ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

[email protected]

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Result Update | Relaxo Footwears

ICICI Direct Research

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This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities | Retail Research

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