Development And Climate Change Project: Concept Paper On

COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2002)1/FINAL
ENVIRONMENT DIRECTORATE DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION DIRECTORATE
Working Party on Global and Structural Policies Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment
DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECT:
CONCEPT PAPER ON SCOPE AND CRITERIA FOR CASE STUDY SELECTION
by Shardul Agrawala and Martin Berg

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques

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Copyright OECD, 2002 Applications for permission to reporduce or translate all of part of this material should be addressed to the Head of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France.
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FOREWORD
This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity being jointly overseen by the Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the Working Party on Development Co-operation and Environment (WPENV). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. Insights from the work are therefore expected to have implications for the development assistance community in OECD countries, and national and regional planners in developing countries.
This document, written by Shardul Agrawala and Martin Berg, outlines the analytical framework that was used to establish case studies for the project. It is therefore an interim product that is intended to guide early thinking on the work. The products that eventually emerge from the process may ultimately differ in both scope and content from the orientations described herein.
In addition to delegates to the above-mentioned Working Parties, the authors would like to thank Jan Corfee-Morlot, Tom Jones, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris of the OECD Secretariat for their comments on earlier drafts.
The paper does not necessarily represent the views of either the OECD or its Member countries. It is published under the responsibility of the Secretary General.
Further inquiries about either this paper or ongoing work on sustainable development and climate change should be directed to: Shardul Agrawala of the OECD Environment Directorate: [email protected], or Georg Caspary of the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate: [email protected]
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TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 5 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................... 6 2. KEY ISSUES REGARDING PROJECT SCOPE................................................................................... 7
2.1 Mitigation and adaptation responses ................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Climate variability and anthropogenic climate change .................................................................... 8 3. FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS........................................................................................................ 10 4. PRINCIPLES FOR CASE STUDY SELECTION................................................................................ 14 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 16
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document outlines the analytical framework for an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. A three-tier framework is also described for the project case studies that will provide a country-level overview of principal climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, followed by an in-depth analysis at a sectoral or regional/local level on how climate responses could be mainstreamed into particular development policies and projects. The primary emphasis of the case studies will be on adaptation responses, although one or more case studies may also examine mitigation responses that relate to natural resource management.
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1.

INTRODUCTION

This paper provides the scope, analytical framework, and criteria for selection of case studies for an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. A starting point for the project is that development and climate change policies imply a two-way relationship: choices about development pathways influence climate change as well as the vulnerability of societies to climate change impacts; on the other hand, climate change impacts could influence the rate and level of economic development itself. Examining such linkages would also reinforce understanding about sustainable development – both before the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and after.
The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. There is a particular emphasis on implications for the development assistance community – particularly the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD, as well as for national and regional planners in developing countries. As further elaborated in Section 2, the primary focus of the project is on adaptation responses to climate change, although one or more case studies may also examine linkages between mitigation and economic development planning.
The overall objectives of the project will be accomplished through (three to six) country case studies that will:
x Review the principal impacts and vulnerabilities to climate change for the case study country, drawing upon information from international and national assessments.
x Identify national development and environmental plans as well as donor funded projects that bear upon sectors and regions vulnerable to climate change impacts, and assess the degree of current attention to climate change in such plans and projects.
x Conduct one or two in-depth analyses at a thematic, sectoral, regional or project level within each country. This could for example include an assessment of the trade-offs involved in integrating specific anticipatory adaptation measures, such as the modification of infrastructure projects with long life spans to incorporate projected changes in climate. Linkages between regulatory adaptation and development planning could also be examined, for example the costs and benefits involved in altering policies that might otherwise increase the vulnerability to climate change.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 clarifies key issues concerning the project scope that have emerged from the literature review and feedback from member governments. The framework for analysis is described in Section 3. Section 4 discusses some principles for case study selection, and provides a list of potential case study countries.

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2.

KEY ISSUES REGARDING PROJECT SCOPE

This project seeks to build upon, and not duplicate, established efforts such as the climate change impact and vulnerability assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The national level will be used as the unit of analysis, although in-depth assessment of particular response strategies will also require examination at the sectoral, regional and/or local level. The case studies will include a spectrum of countries in terms of their level of development as well as their vulnerability to climate impacts. In addition, two issues have emerged that require further clarification with regard to the precise scope of the case studies.

2.1

Mitigation and adaptation responses

There are two generic forms of responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation (Figure 1). Mitigation responses seek to limit climate change through reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions. There are important synergies between economic development planning and mitigation, particularly in the energy sector. These linkages are already the focus of considerable research and analysis, and were also examined in the pilot phase of this project. Adaptation responses meanwhile include biological, technical, institutional, economic, behavioral and other adjustments that reduce vulnerability to the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change (Huq 2002). Effective responses to climate change require an integrated portfolio of responses that that includes both mitigation and adaptation. The primary focus of the case studies in this project however will be on adaptation. One or more case studies may also examine linkages between economic development planning and natural resource management issues that relate to mitigation.

Figure 1. Mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change (IPCC 2001b)

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Adaptation strategies can be further classified as reactive or anticipatory, depending upon when they are initiated. Both natural and human systems undertake adaptation – although only human systems can engage in anticipatory adaptation. Within human systems, adaptation can be further classified in terms of whether the actions are undertaken by private or public agents (Figure 2). This project will focus on anticipatory adaptation to climate change, primarily by public agents. This narrowing in scope is necessary, given the resources available for the case studies. However, case studies may also give consideration to how economic development planning and assistance might use the forces of the private sector to promote adaptation, and mitigation where appropriate.

Figure 2. Typology of adaptation responses (IPCC 2001b)

Natural Systems

Anticipatory

Reactive
· Changes in length of growing season · Changes in ecosystem composition · Wetland migration

Private

Human Systems

Public

· Purchase of insurance · Construction of house on stilts · Redesign of oil-rigs

· Changes in farm practices · Changes in insurance premiums · Purchase of air-conditioning

· Early-warning systems · New building codes, design standards · Incentives for relocation

· Compensatory payments, subsidies · Enforcement of building codes · Beach nourishment

2.2

Climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

A second set of issues revolves around whether the project would focus on responses to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability or planning responses that specifically address anthropogenic climate change. Human and natural ecosystems have sought to adapt both to climate averages (through diversity in clothing and lifestyles), as well as significant departures from these averages, such as those experienced every few years as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO signal and impacts are particularly severe in the tropics and extra-tropics that are also home to much of the developing world (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987). It is upon these naturally occurring fluctuations that human activity has now superimposed a relatively recent trend of anthropogenic climate change. The Third Assessment of the IPCC concludes that some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human and natural systems are already discernible, while still others are expected to become more evident with time, as the climate change signal emerges from the background of natural climate variability (IPCC 2001b).

There has been growing recognition in recent years that adaptation responses to climate change and climate variability are indeed linked (Agrawala and Cane 2002). Adapting to current climate fluctuations is already sensible in an economic development context, given direct and certain evidence of adverse impacts of such phenomena. Such adaptations are also likely to enhance resilience of societies to cope with many adverse impacts of climate change, as many human induced changes in climate will manifest themselves through enhanced or altered climate variability. However, there is already a wealth of accumulated knowledge as well as several ongoing projects that examine short-term responses to climate fluctuations across regions, sectors, and spatial scales. These initiatives include a cadre of several hundred researchers, government agencies, specialized seasonal climate prediction and forecast application

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institutions, as well as international food security, disaster management, and development aid agencies1. The enhancement of societal capacity to cope with current climate risks resulting from such efforts will doubtless contribute to the ability of societies to cope with the additional risks that might be posed by anthropogenic climate change.
It would nevertheless be premature to preclude – without adequate analysis – the possibility that anthropogenic climate change might also require forward looking investment and planning responses that go beyond short-term responses to current climate variability. Not all climate changes are uncertain at the spatial and temporal scales at which planning decisions are made. While climate projections of precipitation and streamflow tend to be highly uncertain (particularly at high spatial resolution), temperature and sea level rise are two variables where climate change trends are more secular and robust. Even in the absence of a clear precipitation signal, temperature increase alone can have wide ranging impacts, from permafrost melt in high latitudes to the melting of tropical glaciers to reduced water-use efficiency of rivers and irrigation systems, particularly in semi-arid areas. Permafrost melt and the melting of tropical glaciers have already been documented. Mount Kilimanjaro in fact is expected to lose all of its snow cover by as early as 2015 (Thompson 2001). Furthermore, not all decisions made during the normal course of economic development are short term and therefore out of step with responses to climate change. In fact, many routine investment and infrastructure decisions leave a footprint for several decades or more. This might include infrastructure related to housing or gas pipelines in the Arctic tundra that might be vulnerable to permafrost melt; investments related to coastal infrastructure, tourism, and wetland protection that might need to account for sea level rise; and planning for water supply, irrigation and hydropower power systems that might be critically dependent on snow melt from tropical glaciers.
This project therefore takes as its focus the linkages between economic development planning and climate responses over the medium term, from several years to a few decades. This includes: (i) development policies and projects that have a “locked-in”character, in that they might enhance or constrain the ability of societies to cope with climate variability and change over the medium term; and (ii) new planning responses that might be necessitated to cope with the impacts of climate changes that might manifest themselves in the coming years, such as sea-level rise, melting of tropical glaciers, increasing temperatures, and changes in precipitation and streamflow. The results are likely to have relevance for OECD governments in their development assistance activities, as well as for the development planners in countries where case studies will be conducted.
1 For a review of ongoing initiatives, see Coping with Climate (IRI 2001), and An Experiment in the Application of Climate Forecasts (NOAAOffice of Global Programs 1999).
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3.

FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS

The overall unit of analysis will be at the national level, although analysis of particular adaptation responses will have a sectoral or regional/local focus. Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities do not follow political boundaries, but economic planning, development assistance, and adaptation responses typically do. It is proposed to base the analysis on case studies, each with a three-tier format (Figure 3). The first tier will provide a contextual (geographical, demographic, economic) overview, and summarize available knowledge on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the country. This synthesis will draw upon IPCC assessments; reports produced under the UNEP, US, and the Dutch country studies programs; national communications to the UNFCCC; and research articles. A number of countries, particularly many least developed countries are lacking in such assessments and will therefore not be included among the case studies. This may limit the generalizability of case study findings. Within each case study country, the focus will be on parameters and regions where the climate change signal is more robust.
Figure 3. Three-tier framework for case studies

1.
Development context and climate change
impacts
• Geographic, demographic and economic overview.
• Identification of sectors and regions vulnerable to climate change impacts.

2.
Linkages between climate change and development plans
• Review of relevant economic,environmental and social plans (such as PRSP, NSSD, NEAP) for attention to climate change impacts.
• Assessment of attention to climate change in donor aid portfolios.

3.
In-depth thematic, regional, or project
level analysis
• Examination of benefits and trade-offs in incorporating responses to climate change in particular development policies and projects.
• The focus will be on natural resource management issues such as forest policy, coastal zone management, and water infrastructure projects.

The second tier will review relevant economic, environmental and social plans as well as multilateral and development assistance portfolios to assess the extent to which concerns related to climate change impacts are reflected in such documents. Synergies and trade-offs involved in better integration of
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